really. this is strongest feel i had in stocks in years. And it will make you rich.Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR)it went down 47% today to $4.00 on a pr that came that said their new drug got an "approvable letter" instead of being approved by the fda. Now an Approvable letter means that more than likely this drug will be approved by the FDA, but how long will the wait be?The PR today wasn't negative, just disppointing. In fact, itwas a positive PR IMO. The market overreacted, driven by vestedintersts who have been infesting this board egging on the weakminded to sell and scoot. The question remains, however, whywould the roaches encourage selling? Do they want to buy thefloat? possibly, because this infestation has been on for afew months now and the institutional holdings have increased.So the obvious question to ask it: have the institutions beenletting lose hired roaches to help them in share accumulation?Yours truly thinks so.About the PR:a. It was NOT A REJECTION but an APPROVABLE. Which means thatthe FDA will approve this drug, but under certain conditions.If the issue was really with efficacy or safety, it would haverejected it outright. The last thing the FDA wants is to approve(able)an unsafe drug. NEVER. So the FDA WILL APPROVE, after somediscussion most possibly regarding labeling.b. The labeling discussion that everyone refered to before mightjust be this. That until the labeling is clear AVNR cannotsell the drug. It is usually expected to happen behind closeddoors, but this time since the time was up AVNR chose to releasethe closed door discussions to the public. Why? possibly becausehe wants more institutional holding and less retail. Atleast, thelevel of abuse directed against him will recede. Take this withthe series of actions:- i - the 1:4 RS. Why was it necessary? so that pps could bemanipulated to allow big people to assume positions- ii - warning on the continuity of this drug. What? afte spendingtens/hundreds of millions don't tell me that the drug will beabandoned! That's BS, meant to either send the retailer packingor a standard disclaimer in such situations.- iii- The PR wasn't downbeat. No word of disappointment from themanagement. It was concise and emotionless, meant purely to conveythe meaning of the stage of their application but no hint of theoutcome. I've seen PRs of drug rejections and always the management isapologetic and downbeat. Here, the way I read this Eric meant "the drugwas not approved in time since there are some more discussions regardingthe safety/efficacy of the drug. So after discussions and with appropriatelabeling we'll be back in business. If this drugs gets FDA approval, there stock price will be trading at $40opportunity of a lifetime
This thing will be a dog until the specifics about the conditions required to make this approvable.That wont be available until they meet with the FDA.With so much invested up to this point Im sure it will be approved eventually barring a massive failure to produce the results the FDA wants.However the damage this company has endured chasing this is going to reek havok with profitability for a while.Their revenue should indeed skyrocket when approved but who knows when that is.This stock could very well drop more,youll be holding it a while to make money.Two days of heavy losses tells me that on heavy trading is a sure sign this thing is close to bottoming out so it is indeed a good time to buy it long but 40.00 a share is not reasonable.Thier theorhetical revenue increase wont equal earnings increase for some time.
BigBrian said:
Not as nice as this pick.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=3574290#post3574290
I need extra X-Mas cash, gonna fade Cats picks all week.
